The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES) published a report entitled “The great Dutch gas transition” in July. It captures both the feelings towards, and the reality of the situation being faced – the closer we look at the climate challenge, the more arduous the ascent to 2050 appears to be. The paper concludes, not unlike in the UK, that there is still a great deal of uncertainty as to what shape the energy transition will take. Equally there is a strong national focus, which would appear to show less concern for international developments and carbon leakage associated with imported fuels. At least in the UK, since the document was published, this appears to be a more widely acknowledged issue.
A standout conclusion was that the Netherlands appear to have embarked upon a complete phaseout of unabated natural gas consumption and production by 2050, except if converted to blue hydrogen first and only if coupled with CCS. This push for blue hydrogen should be carefully reviewed, since we believe its production, which requires natural gas, would reduce energy efficiency and could produce more emissions than simple natural gas combustion for power generation coupled with CCS. The fact that these CO2 emissions are ‘hidden’ behind a chemical process not currently recognised by climate targets, rather than combustion for power generation, is something that should be made clear both to the public and those behind such policies. Given what is at stake, exploiting loopholes should not even be considered.
The ‘clear cut’ way to cut emissions, and perhaps why it tends to be the focus of progress reports, press and activists, is the expansion of renewable energy in power generation – especially offshore wind and solar power, which are seemingly on track. Yet, the transition must be more diverse to reach across its five target sectors; electricity, industry, built environment, transport and agriculture.
In its final conclusion, the OIES paper rightly recognises that the eventual outcome of the transition may be affected by future technological progress amongst others.
Ref: ‘The Great Dutch Gas Transition’ by oxfordenergy.org